NZD/USD profit and update

NZD/USD H1 chart

The H1 chart clearly shows that the price is trying to test the resistance at 0.830 level but failed. Unfortunately, my dynamic trailing stoploss was hit at 0.82986. Because of this I was only able to profit 11.4 pips.


NZD/USD D1 chart

Looking at the D1 chart, stochastic and MACD indicators are both giving a bearish signal for this pair.

Stochastic K line is about to reach the 50 level which is a high indication of more downward movement.

MACD and signal line crossed over and the histogram showing volume below 0.00 level is another indication of downward movement.

RSI line just bounced but staying just above the 50 level. A break of 50 level is a bearish signal.

Take note that this chart is as of this moment chart, it can still change by the time the New York market closes.

I put a short entry below yesterdays's low. My target now is at 0.8060 price.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD sentiments

EUR/USD D1 chart

This is the scenario that I'm thinking which can happen in a few days. If the price continue to go down below 1.3416 level and fails to break that line, we might see a continuation of a bullish trend. Else, price can go and retest the 1.3164 - 1.3105 level.

GBP/USD D1 chart

There is a resistance at 1.6160 level but we are still above the bullish trend line from the retest of 1.4810 price. The price might rebound at 1.5880 price and continue upward. But a break of the bullish trend line can be a signal to welcome the bears to take over.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD
W1 chart

D1 chart

I moved my long entry at few pips above 17th September 2013 high with the initial target below 1.0440 price.

I added a short entry below 1.0250 price because the weekly chart is still suggesting that the trend is still bearish. My initial target will be at 1.01380 price.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD D1 chart

Moved my short entry few pips below the low of 19th of September 2013 trading. My initial target now is above 0.81650 price.

I am thinking to put a long entry here if the price tries to reach 0.8470 level.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD
W1 chart

D1 chart

I moved my short entry below 0.9340 price with the initial target above 0.9220 price.

I added a long entry above the most recent high price which is somewhere above 0.950 price with a target at below 0.96670 level.

The reason why I added a long entry is because of the weekly chart is still showing a bullish trend.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

My plan here is to move my long entry below 1.0360 price.

ADX line showing a bent line "again" this time might be the true signal of a trend reversal.

Stochastic lines are about to get out of oversold area.

MACD line showing a bent and going to the direction going to cross the signal line. Together with the histogram which is showing a weakness of selling power, this can be a proof for the start of a new trend.

RSI line is just below the 50 level and a break of that level will make the price to move upward more.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD D1 chart

I think the price here might reach 0.8470 before reversing. But a breakout can lead to the price up to 0.8640 or even 0.880 level.

Stochastic and RSI indicators are both in the overbought area but they are showing that they are about to go to a downward direction.

ADX line is still showing a strong trend at 62.45 level but I know that the reversal signal of a bent line is lagging so the price may start to drop anytime.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1 chart

I'm planning to move my short entry below 0.9340 price if I will have a chance tomorrow.

The ADX line showed a clearer bent line which is a confirmation of the previous trend has ended. 

Stochastic indicator is somehow showing a little divergence from the overbought area. 

Even the histogram of MACD indicator is showing a divergence. 

If RSI pass the 50 level and stay below that level, I think that will be the start of the bearish trend.

Profit from FOMC statement

I was able to position buy entries at the top of the current prices of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and  below the previous low of USD/CAD before the FOMC statement released. The reason why I decided to go against US$ is because of the price movement at USDOLLAR chart looks like struggling to go up.

The total pips reached almost 150 pips before the pull back but I decided to close all my positions when it hit the 100 pips. If I just hold my position a bit longer, it should have been around more or less 200 pips total.

If I was a bit early, there should also be a long entry at EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

As of this writing, the USDOLLAR chart is still showing some more downward movement but I decided to call it a day.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD
D1 chart

W1 chart

Price in this pair seems about to breakout from the top line of rising channel. I am planning to do a similar setup from my AUD/USD update to have a long entry from the dip of price tomorrow. Initial target will be somewhere at 0.8470 price.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD
D1 chart

W1 chart

While the D1 chart is showing a break of 0.9340 price, the W1 chart shows that more upward movement will occur. I am planning to add a long entry together with my short entry here. My long entry will be from the dip of price tomorrow with a tight trailing stoploss based on the price movement. Initial target for my long entry will be somewhere at 0.96670 price.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD W1 chart

With a strong bearish look in the weekly chart, I've decided to add a short entry along with my long entry from here. My short entry is below the 1.0250 price which is below the low of 31 July 2013. Initial target for my short will be at 1.0130 and second will be somewhere above 1.00 price.

NZD/USD trading setup

NZD/USD D1 chart

It seems like the price is struggling to break 0.81650. My plan here will be a short entry below the lowest price of today's trading with a trailing stoploss. The initial target will be somewhere at 0.7880 price and second target will be the bottom of the rising channel.

AUD/USD trading setup

AUD/USD D1 chart

Looking at the price movement it seems that the price is about to go down again. Stochastic formed a crossover on the overbought area and RSI line just went out of overbought area is a good sign to sell. MACD's histogram is showing a weakness on the buying side. ADX line just shown a small bent as of now which can means to the start of a reversal.

My plan here is to have my short entry below the 0.9220 with a trailing stoploss and initial target will be at 0.9030 price.

USD/CAD profit

USD/CAD D1 chart

Just let the price hit my stoploss giving me a 17.5 pips profit.

By the looks of the current indicators, a reversal is about to begin. I can't add a long entry since my broker says that the market is already closed. I'm planning to put a long entry somewhere above 1.0360 level with a trailing stoploss and my target profit will be at or before 1.0440 level.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

I moved my stoploss line below my entry line just to make sure if the price reverses, I will have some profit. Hoping for some more downward movement to hit my target profit above 1.0280 level. Both stochastic and RSI are now in the oversold area and can start a reversal soon. But MACD is still suggesting more downward movement. ADX is also supporting the current trend which is a bearish trend.

I'm still sticking to my initial plan that if price breaks the 1.0280 level, I will put a new short entry.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

Currently the price is on the bottom line of the rising channel. Looking at MACD indicator, it seems that we can expect more decline on the following days. Both the stochastic and RSI indicators are in the oversold area that if they stay on there could prove for more downward movement for the price. ADX line starting to confirm the trend by making a rising line.

I'm planning to take the profit just above my 1.0280 line and set another sell entry if the price tries to break that level.

W1 chart

W1 chart looks like the price is testing again the bottom line of the channel. A break of bottom channel line confirms of end of the bullish trend.

M1 chart

Looking at the M1 chart, all indicators are signaling for the bears to take over. Stochastic just went out of the overbought area but MACD indicators does not confirm yet of the bearish trend. But we need to take note that we are just on the 1/3 of the month so anything can still change on the indicators.

USD/CAD profit

USD/CAD D1 chart

Target hit giving me 100 pips profit. The trend still look bearish and a revisit of 1.0440 is possible before continuing downward.

If the price breaks the 1.03550 level, it might continue to the bottom line of the channel. I'm planning to set a short entry below the bottom channel to catch a breakout but with a tight trailing stoploss.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

The trend is still bearish as per the indicators. Currently, Stochastic's K just crossed the 50 level mark and hoping it will stay below that level until the end of trading. MACD lines showing a downward cross over with a bar from the histogram showing below 0 is a great indication of more downward movement. RSI line is a few movement away from the oversold level and hopefully it will stay below 30.

My target is just a few pips away and my next plan is to look for the pull-back that will be at a support level and set my new short entry.

USD/CAD trading plan

USD/CAD D1 chart

Every indicator that I have here is giving a bearish signal. ADX line showing a peak above 40 level is a strong signal of a trend reversal.

My plan here is to have my short entry somewhere at 1.0470 level and first target will be above 1.0355 level. Second target will be at 1.0280 if price breaks my previous target.

NZD/USD loss

NZD/USD D1 chart

I just waited for the price to hit my S/L because I missed the profit when the price went down to 0.7720 level on the start of Monday trading this week. I removed my buy entry at 0.7880 level last week because of no clear signal.

Now, I will just wait for the price to be near 0.810 level and try to analyse if there will be a divergence or not.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD
D1 chart

W1 chart

So far, my bearish analysis of this pair is still correct. The only time that I got a loss last week from this pair is when my risk is to little that the price managed to reach my stoploss then bounced back after 6 pips.

If this pair break the 0.7980 level, the next target will be 0.7480. Failure to break, I will take the profit right away and wait for signals.

August 2013 trading summary

This month I managed to screenshot most of my profits and losses and successfully posted them on the end of every trade that I had this month.

2-August-2013     :      97.8  pips
5-August-2013     :  -127.2  pips
14-August-2013   :    -71.7  pips
16-August-2013   :     50      pips
16-August-2013   :     50.8   pips
21-August-2013   :   139.8   pips
22-August-2013   :       4.3   pips
27-August-2013   :     51      pips
28-August-2013   :   -23.3   pips
29-August-2013   :   -75.3   pips

Total pips for August is 96.2 pips
Ratio of my trades is 6:4

At the start of the month I should already have 470+ pips on my pocket but failed to secure the profit because of panic. I should be spending a vacation somewhere in a private island. Ahahah. Moving on, I'm still not happy on my performance for this month because of my loss of -127.2 pips and most of my profits are below 100 pips. I tried to use the dynamic trailing stoploss at the last 4 trades combined with analysis from support/resistance lines but the outcome is not as good as I expected. The last trade shouldn't have been a loss if I didn't change the amount of risk.

I haven't surpass my goal of getting a monthly profit of 100-200 pips, so it is still my goal for the month of September.

My plan is still to incorporate the support/resistance line to identify my stoploss and profit, and try again using the dynamic trailing stoploss.