AUD/USD loss

AUD/USD D1 chart

Two news from yesterday and today that made the usdollar stronger that cause this pair go down.

I was not able to monitor the news on Thursday and today I was late and only able to get some pips at the end of the trend giving me a total of -89.5 pips.

Since the break of 38% Fibonacci, this pair might continue to go down. My plan for next week is to look for a good position for a short entry.

EUR/USD bullish divergence

EUR/USD D1 chart

Price seems to find a support again at the bullish trendline and looks like there is a strong resistance above the 38% of Fibonacci Retracement.

Adding to that is a bullish divergence from the low on 6th-September to the higher low on 4th-November against the lower lows of the indicators.

One more good indicator that the short bearish trend is done is the ADX line starting to show a downward bend.

I placed my long entry just above today's high as per this writing.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1

I'm still bullish in this pair from my post here. So I added a new long entry at 0.9550 price.

Stochastic line just went out of the oversold area which is a good signal of upward movement for the price.

MACD histogram showing weakness from selling volume and MACD line looks like about to crossover the signal line upward.

RSI line breaks the 50 level going upward.

ADX still don't give any indication of ongoing trend.

AUD/USD Bullish Divergence

AUD/USD D1 chart

On my chart above I can see that the price bounced from the 38% of Fibonacci Retractment and also formed the higher low of a Bullish Divergence.

Connecting the two significant lows of the price, I got a higher low.

Stochastic lines showing a lower low.

MACD histogram and even the lines shows a higher low.

RSI line showing lower low.

I don't have a target right now and I will just rely on my indicators on when will I exit my trade.

AUD/USD profit

I closed my trade earlier through mobile phone when I saw that the price is struggling to break the 38% of Fibonacci Retracement. But I failed to get a printscreen because when I open my computer, the platform already cleared the history of the previous trading.

AUD/USD D1 chart

From my short re-entry here, I decided to close my trade with +70 pips profit.

I added a short entry at the middle of 50% and 38% with initial target at 50% of Fibonacci Retracment.

October 2013 trading summary

Here is the summary of my trading for the month of October 2013

1-October-2013       :     -70.1 pips
17-October-2013     :     -43 pips
18-October-2013     :     +150 pips
24-October-2013     :     -102.9 pips
31-October-2013     :     +19.9 pips

Total pips for the month of October is -46.1 pips
Ratio of my trade is 2:3

From the loss on the first day, my next trade was not until the second half of the month. Even though I decided to be a little bit aggressive for the month of October, I still not able to see signals from other pairs. The first 2 weeks of the month seems like all the traders are undecided resulting to a ranging market. My entries was hit but the prices just moved between the stoploss and target line for a couple of days.

I failed to achieve my goal profit and ended up of having a loss.

My goal profit for the month of November is still the same of last month which is 150-300 pips.

NZD/USD profit

I failed to printscreen my trade earlier but I managed to see my profit of 19.9 pips from my mobile phone.

The reason why my trade was closed is because of the tip of the price reached my stoploss before going down again.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD D1 chart

Same as my post about AUD/USD, I just moved my stoploss just above today's high.

Stochastic line are in the oversold area and K crossed over the D line but that is the reading as of this writing. As long as the lines stay inside the oversold area, we can still expect move downward movement.

MACD line is about to cross the 0 level which is a strong indicator of a bearish trend.

RSI line is still trying to break the 30 level and as long as the line stay below 50, this can still be a bearish trend.

ADX line still going down and no sign of a strong trend.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1 chart

Moved my stoploss near where my entry was because it is also the high of today's trading.

I still believe that the price has a long way downward before it reverses. But just in-case I'm wrong, I will just have a few loss.

Stochastic lines just above the oversold line and might be below the line by tomorrow's trading.

MACD lines showing a strong bearish trend by the direction of both lines while the histogram is giving a strong selling volume for this pair.

RSI is hanging just above the oversold area which is still a good indicator of bearish trend.

ADX line still hasn't show any signal of a clear ongoing trend because of it's direction pointing downwards.

NZD/USD Bearish Divergence

NZD/USD D1 chart

If I had seen this earlier, I should have more that a hundred profit right now.

As what is shown on the chart, the prices made a higher highs but the 3 indicators are showing lower highs which means that we are now going to the bearish trend.

My initial target is at 0.8170 but the price might retest the 0.7680 level.

AUD/USD loss and short entry set-up

AUD/USD D1 chart

My loss of 102.9 pips is caused by the news that triggered my long entry. The price spiked upward because of this:
Asian stocks down after Central Bank of China refrained from adding funds to the market pushing money market rates higher (Via Bloomberg)
23 Oct 05:07:23 AM GMT

Now, I positioned a short entry below the rising trend line to have a strong confirmation that the bears will take over.

Stochastic lines are showing that the bearish trend just started by getting out of the overbought area.

MACD's histogram is showing a weakness on buying volume and the MACD line is about to crossover the signal line.

RSI line is about to cross the 50 level which will be a good indicator that we are now in the bearish trend.

My initial target is above the 0.9220 price.

AUD/USD profit

I made a wrong decision of choosing to put my stoploss at 0.9610 instead of 0.9600 price. I should still have an open position. Because of that, I profited 150 pips from my entry on the previous week.

My additional long entry is still above 0.9670 price but if the price need some support to go up, the price might bounce from 0.95250-0.9340 level. I think the price will still go up since ADX is showing it's line pointing upward meaning the trend is still intact.

But failure to do so, my short entry is still at 0.9350 price.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1 chart

Currently I'm having a 150+ pips and just waiting for the price to reach my target below 0.96670.

Stochastic lines are in the overbought area but staying there could result to more upward movement.

MACD histogram starting to show some buying volume and MACD line crossed-over the signal line signal's of price to go higher.

RSI break the 70 level and staying at overbought area meaning I should be cautious that the price might start to go down anytime soon.

ADX line just started to show a trend by making a line going upward. Hopeful to see this line to reach level 40 or more.

I'm planning to add a new long entry above 0.96670 price with a target price at 1.010 level.

USD/CAD loss

USD/CAD D1 chart

The price failed to reach my target profit below 1.0440 giving me a loss of -43 pips. I thought that 1.034 level was a good support for the price to push higher but the recent news about the US government will end it's shutdown made the US dollar stronger.

I still have my short entry positioned below 1.0280 price with a target price at 1.0380.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

I added a long entry above the 1.0340 price with the target at below 1.044 price.

I moved my short entry below yesterday's low with target above 1.01380 price.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1 chart

I added a short entry from the low of yesterday's trading with the target at 0.9030 price.

I moved my long entry to the top of 23rd September's trading with target below 0.96670 price.

My loss from the US government shutdown

The partial shutdown of US Government caused the US dollar to be bearish but a pull-back up to 50% of Fibonacci happen after the downward surge.

Since my positions have trailing stoplosses, the spike from the price managed to reach my stoplosses before pulling back to the almost original position for USD/CAD and halfway from AUD/USD.

September 2013 trading summary

Here is the summary of trading for this month

4-September-2013     :   -70 pips
9-September-2013     :   +100 pips
13-September-2013   :   +17.5 pips
18-September-2013   :   +99.9 pips
26-September-2013   :   +11.4 pips

Total pips for September is 158.8 pips
Ratio of my trade is 4:1

I wasn't aware that I only have 5 successful entries for this month. I tried to be more cautious and use the support and resistance levels for my entries. But this time, I am able to get my goal to have 100-200 pips.

Comparing my performance for this month to the previous months that I was able to put here in my journal, I can say that having few trades can result to a better winning rate and profit.

For the month of October, I will try to be a little bit aggressive on placing my entries but still with the help of support and resistance levels for positioning. My goal profit this time is 150-300 pips.

NZD/USD profit and update

NZD/USD H1 chart

The H1 chart clearly shows that the price is trying to test the resistance at 0.830 level but failed. Unfortunately, my dynamic trailing stoploss was hit at 0.82986. Because of this I was only able to profit 11.4 pips.


NZD/USD D1 chart

Looking at the D1 chart, stochastic and MACD indicators are both giving a bearish signal for this pair.

Stochastic K line is about to reach the 50 level which is a high indication of more downward movement.

MACD and signal line crossed over and the histogram showing volume below 0.00 level is another indication of downward movement.

RSI line just bounced but staying just above the 50 level. A break of 50 level is a bearish signal.

Take note that this chart is as of this moment chart, it can still change by the time the New York market closes.

I put a short entry below yesterdays's low. My target now is at 0.8060 price.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD sentiments

EUR/USD D1 chart

This is the scenario that I'm thinking which can happen in a few days. If the price continue to go down below 1.3416 level and fails to break that line, we might see a continuation of a bullish trend. Else, price can go and retest the 1.3164 - 1.3105 level.

GBP/USD D1 chart

There is a resistance at 1.6160 level but we are still above the bullish trend line from the retest of 1.4810 price. The price might rebound at 1.5880 price and continue upward. But a break of the bullish trend line can be a signal to welcome the bears to take over.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD
W1 chart

D1 chart

I moved my long entry at few pips above 17th September 2013 high with the initial target below 1.0440 price.

I added a short entry below 1.0250 price because the weekly chart is still suggesting that the trend is still bearish. My initial target will be at 1.01380 price.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD D1 chart

Moved my short entry few pips below the low of 19th of September 2013 trading. My initial target now is above 0.81650 price.

I am thinking to put a long entry here if the price tries to reach 0.8470 level.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD
W1 chart

D1 chart

I moved my short entry below 0.9340 price with the initial target above 0.9220 price.

I added a long entry above the most recent high price which is somewhere above 0.950 price with a target at below 0.96670 level.

The reason why I added a long entry is because of the weekly chart is still showing a bullish trend.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

My plan here is to move my long entry below 1.0360 price.

ADX line showing a bent line "again" this time might be the true signal of a trend reversal.

Stochastic lines are about to get out of oversold area.

MACD line showing a bent and going to the direction going to cross the signal line. Together with the histogram which is showing a weakness of selling power, this can be a proof for the start of a new trend.

RSI line is just below the 50 level and a break of that level will make the price to move upward more.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD D1 chart

I think the price here might reach 0.8470 before reversing. But a breakout can lead to the price up to 0.8640 or even 0.880 level.

Stochastic and RSI indicators are both in the overbought area but they are showing that they are about to go to a downward direction.

ADX line is still showing a strong trend at 62.45 level but I know that the reversal signal of a bent line is lagging so the price may start to drop anytime.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD D1 chart

I'm planning to move my short entry below 0.9340 price if I will have a chance tomorrow.

The ADX line showed a clearer bent line which is a confirmation of the previous trend has ended. 

Stochastic indicator is somehow showing a little divergence from the overbought area. 

Even the histogram of MACD indicator is showing a divergence. 

If RSI pass the 50 level and stay below that level, I think that will be the start of the bearish trend.

Profit from FOMC statement

I was able to position buy entries at the top of the current prices of AUD/USD, NZD/USD and  below the previous low of USD/CAD before the FOMC statement released. The reason why I decided to go against US$ is because of the price movement at USDOLLAR chart looks like struggling to go up.

The total pips reached almost 150 pips before the pull back but I decided to close all my positions when it hit the 100 pips. If I just hold my position a bit longer, it should have been around more or less 200 pips total.

If I was a bit early, there should also be a long entry at EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

As of this writing, the USDOLLAR chart is still showing some more downward movement but I decided to call it a day.

NZD/USD update

NZD/USD
D1 chart

W1 chart

Price in this pair seems about to breakout from the top line of rising channel. I am planning to do a similar setup from my AUD/USD update to have a long entry from the dip of price tomorrow. Initial target will be somewhere at 0.8470 price.

AUD/USD update

AUD/USD
D1 chart

W1 chart

While the D1 chart is showing a break of 0.9340 price, the W1 chart shows that more upward movement will occur. I am planning to add a long entry together with my short entry here. My long entry will be from the dip of price tomorrow with a tight trailing stoploss based on the price movement. Initial target for my long entry will be somewhere at 0.96670 price.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD W1 chart

With a strong bearish look in the weekly chart, I've decided to add a short entry along with my long entry from here. My short entry is below the 1.0250 price which is below the low of 31 July 2013. Initial target for my short will be at 1.0130 and second will be somewhere above 1.00 price.

NZD/USD trading setup

NZD/USD D1 chart

It seems like the price is struggling to break 0.81650. My plan here will be a short entry below the lowest price of today's trading with a trailing stoploss. The initial target will be somewhere at 0.7880 price and second target will be the bottom of the rising channel.

AUD/USD trading setup

AUD/USD D1 chart

Looking at the price movement it seems that the price is about to go down again. Stochastic formed a crossover on the overbought area and RSI line just went out of overbought area is a good sign to sell. MACD's histogram is showing a weakness on the buying side. ADX line just shown a small bent as of now which can means to the start of a reversal.

My plan here is to have my short entry below the 0.9220 with a trailing stoploss and initial target will be at 0.9030 price.

USD/CAD profit

USD/CAD D1 chart

Just let the price hit my stoploss giving me a 17.5 pips profit.

By the looks of the current indicators, a reversal is about to begin. I can't add a long entry since my broker says that the market is already closed. I'm planning to put a long entry somewhere above 1.0360 level with a trailing stoploss and my target profit will be at or before 1.0440 level.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

I moved my stoploss line below my entry line just to make sure if the price reverses, I will have some profit. Hoping for some more downward movement to hit my target profit above 1.0280 level. Both stochastic and RSI are now in the oversold area and can start a reversal soon. But MACD is still suggesting more downward movement. ADX is also supporting the current trend which is a bearish trend.

I'm still sticking to my initial plan that if price breaks the 1.0280 level, I will put a new short entry.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

Currently the price is on the bottom line of the rising channel. Looking at MACD indicator, it seems that we can expect more decline on the following days. Both the stochastic and RSI indicators are in the oversold area that if they stay on there could prove for more downward movement for the price. ADX line starting to confirm the trend by making a rising line.

I'm planning to take the profit just above my 1.0280 line and set another sell entry if the price tries to break that level.

W1 chart

W1 chart looks like the price is testing again the bottom line of the channel. A break of bottom channel line confirms of end of the bullish trend.

M1 chart

Looking at the M1 chart, all indicators are signaling for the bears to take over. Stochastic just went out of the overbought area but MACD indicators does not confirm yet of the bearish trend. But we need to take note that we are just on the 1/3 of the month so anything can still change on the indicators.

USD/CAD profit

USD/CAD D1 chart

Target hit giving me 100 pips profit. The trend still look bearish and a revisit of 1.0440 is possible before continuing downward.

If the price breaks the 1.03550 level, it might continue to the bottom line of the channel. I'm planning to set a short entry below the bottom channel to catch a breakout but with a tight trailing stoploss.

USD/CAD update

USD/CAD D1 chart

The trend is still bearish as per the indicators. Currently, Stochastic's K just crossed the 50 level mark and hoping it will stay below that level until the end of trading. MACD lines showing a downward cross over with a bar from the histogram showing below 0 is a great indication of more downward movement. RSI line is a few movement away from the oversold level and hopefully it will stay below 30.

My target is just a few pips away and my next plan is to look for the pull-back that will be at a support level and set my new short entry.

USD/CAD trading plan

USD/CAD D1 chart

Every indicator that I have here is giving a bearish signal. ADX line showing a peak above 40 level is a strong signal of a trend reversal.

My plan here is to have my short entry somewhere at 1.0470 level and first target will be above 1.0355 level. Second target will be at 1.0280 if price breaks my previous target.

NZD/USD loss

NZD/USD D1 chart

I just waited for the price to hit my S/L because I missed the profit when the price went down to 0.7720 level on the start of Monday trading this week. I removed my buy entry at 0.7880 level last week because of no clear signal.

Now, I will just wait for the price to be near 0.810 level and try to analyse if there will be a divergence or not.